Fundamentals · 2026-09-09S&P 500ANNUAL BASIS

Moderna

MRNA stock analysis · Health Care · Biotechnology

FY 2025-12-31ANNUAL FILINGS
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These are research estimates based on annual filings. Valuation uses a cash-flow proxy and explicit assumptions; prices are not live. Published valuations use annual periods first filed by the price date, with later restatements retained.
Reference share price · USD
$70.03HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT

As of · fund-implied per-share value

Fund holding value ÷ shares held. Not a live quote; not adjusted for later stock splits.

View SEC fund filing ↗
Estimated issuer market cap
$27.9B

Price × SEC outstanding shares. Shares measured 2026-06-30. Approximate; share and price dates can differ.

View share-count filing ↗
Valuation

DCF value

Requires positive annual FCF, usable shares and discount rate above terminal growth.

Requires positive annual FCF, usable shares and discount rate above terminal growth.

How this is calculated ↗
Valuation

Reverse DCF

No solution in −50% to +100% growth, or nonpositive FCF / invalid assumptions.

No solution in −50% to +100% growth, or nonpositive FCF / invalid assumptions.

How this is calculated ↗
Valuation

Relative valuation

Requires market caps for at least five comparable profitable issuers.

Requires market caps for at least five comparable profitable issuers.

How this is calculated ↗
Valuation

Historical multiples

Requires three annual historical market caps and eligible filed earnings.

Requires three annual historical market caps and eligible filed earnings.

How this is calculated ↗
Valuation

Free cash flow yield

-7.4%

Annual basis · read assumptions below

How this is calculated ↗
Quality

ROIC / quality

Requires two adjacent years of positive average capital, equity, cash, debt and operating income.

Requires two adjacent years of positive average capital, equity, cash, debt and operating income.

How this is calculated ↗
Valuation

Value composite

Requires three valuation yields and at least five covered sector peers.

Requires three valuation yields and at least five covered sector peers.

How this is calculated ↗
Momentum

12–1 price momentum

Split and corporate-action verification is incomplete for these fund observations. Verified adjusted endpoints are required for 12–1 momentum.

Split and corporate-action verification is incomplete for these fund observations. Verified adjusted endpoints are required for 12–1 momentum.

How this is calculated ↗
Investment

Asset growth

-12.8%

Annual basis · read assumptions below

How this is calculated ↗
Investment

Net payout yield

-0.1%

Annual basis · read assumptions below

How this is calculated ↗
Quality

Accrual quality

-7.2%

Parent-earnings fallback versus consolidated cash flow · scope limitation

How this is calculated ↗
Momentum

Fundamental momentum

-26.6%

Annual basis · read assumptions below

How this is calculated ↗

Follow the cash

ANNUAL · USD

Operating cash flow and reinvestment over time

USD · bar maximum 13.6B2020-12-31: cfo $2,027,000,000.002020-12-31: capex $68,000,000.0020202021-12-31: cfo $13,620,000,000.002021-12-31: capex $284,000,000.0020212022-12-31: cfo $4,981,000,000.002022-12-31: capex $400,000,000.0020222023-12-31: cfo -$3,118,000,000.00 (negative; lower scale compressed)2023-12-31: capex $707,000,000.0020232024-12-31: cfo -$3,004,000,000.00 (negative; lower scale compressed)2024-12-31: capex $1,051,000,000.0020242025-12-31: cfo -$1,873,000,000.00 (negative; lower scale compressed)2025-12-31: capex $192,000,000.002025
Operating cash flowCapital expenditure

Annual USD. Negative bars use a compressed lower scale. Hover or inspect the financial history table for exact values.

Make the assumptions yours

Personal inputs stay in this browser. Blank fields retain published inputs. Five-year forecast; zero net borrowing. Required return must exceed terminal growth.

How sensitive is the valuation?

DCF per-share sensitivity · includes reviewed preferred and minority-owner claims · rows: required return · columns: growth
Return / Growth3.0%5.0%7.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%

Annual financial history

Open SEC filings ↗
Fiscal year-endRevenueNet incomeOperating cash flowCapital expenditureAssets
2025-12-311.9B-2.8B-1.9B192M12.3B
2024-12-313.2B-3.6B-3B1.1B14.1B
2023-12-316.8B-4.7B-3.1B707M18.4B
2022-12-3119.3B8.4B5B400M25.9B
2021-12-3118.5B12.2B13.6B284M24.7B
2020-12-31803M-747M2B68M7.3B
2019-12-3160.2M-514M-459M32M1.6B
2018-12-31135.1M-384.7M-330.9M105.8M2B

USD, abbreviated. Restated annual history; not a point-in-time backtest. Missing values appear as dashes.

Trace the inputs

MODEL ANNUAL PERIOD
InputValueSEC tag / sourceFiled
revenue1.9BRevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax2026-02-20
netIncome-2.8BNetIncomeLoss
Parent-attributable fallback: a verified consolidated total is unavailable in the supported tags. Noncontrolling interests have not been assumed to be zero; this may differ in scope from consolidated cash flow or operating income.
2026-02-20
Parent/common earnings proxy-2.8BNetIncomeLoss2026-02-20
cfo-1.9BNetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities2026-02-20
capex192MPaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment2026-02-20
operatingIncome-3.1BOperatingIncomeLoss2026-02-20
assets12.3BAssets2026-02-20
equity8.7BStockholdersEquity
Parent-attributable fallback: a verified consolidated total is unavailable in the supported tags. Noncontrolling interests have not been assumed to be zero; this may differ in scope from consolidated cash flow or operating income.
2026-02-20
Parent book equity proxy8.7BStockholdersEquity2026-02-20
debtNot reported under a supported tag
shortDebtNot reported under a supported tag
cash2.6BCashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue2026-02-20
shares389MWeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding2026-02-20
dividends0Reviewed manual correction
This issuer explicitly confirms in its annual filing that it has never declared or paid cash dividends on its common/capital stock. Reviewed cash-dividend zero, bounded to fiscal period ending 2025-12-31. The exact statement and source filing are retained in the evidence record. This is explicit filing evidence, not an assumption from an absent cash-flow line. Surrounding source passage reviewed as the registrant’s own common-stock policy, not a subsidiary or predecessor statement.
2026-02-20
buybacks2MPaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock2026-02-20
issuance35MReviewed manual correction
Bounded FY2025-12-31 consolidated financing-statement extraction. Proceeds from issuance of common stock through equity plans: 35000000 USD [us-gaap:ProceedsFromStockPlans]. All 5 financing lines reconcile exactly to reported financing cash flow 593000000 USD. Cash inflows from common shares, employee plans and option exercises are summed once as displayed on the statement; noncash compensation, withholding payments, preferred and noncontrolling interests are excluded. This review applies only to this issuer and fiscal period. Source limitation: issuance follows the separately reported common cash-inflow lines; it is not an independent verification of every gross equity transaction.
2026-02-20